TJP

More Police will not Reduce Central City Crimes

Byron A. Ellis

September 26, 2007

It is interesting to hear politicians running for mayoral offices in Baltimore and Philadelphia proclaim that crime in those cities will be reduced by increasing the police force. Thus, they correlate a larger police force with less crime.

If, in fact, more police correlates with less crime, then the reverse should also be true. Less police should correlate with more crime. However, there are countless cities and neighborhoods in the United States with few police and low crime rates. So, fewer police does not imply more crime and more police does not imply less crime.

Between 2000 and 2006, Baltimore city’s population decreased by 3%. However, during the same period Maryland’s population increased by 6%. In 2005 Baltimore city racial composition was approximately 65% black and 32% white. 68% of Baltimoreans of age 25 or older were high school graduates as compared to 84% statewide. 19% had bachelor or higher degree compared to 31% statewide. The median value of owner occupied units was $69,100 as compared to $146,000 statewide. Median household income in 2004 was $29,792 as compared to $57,019 statewide. And, Baltimore city had 21.5% of its citizen below the poverty level compared to 9.2% statewide. Per capita income in 1999 was $16,978 as compared to $25,614 statewide. In 2002 per capita retail sales was $5,145 as compared to $11,034 statewide.  In 2004 Baltimore had 1,839 violent crimes, of which 43% were manslaughter. In 2007, the staffing level of Baltimore city police department is approximately 2,979; it was about 3,300 officers in 2002 and the crime rate was higher than in 2004 (2,055 violent crimes).

Like Baltimore, between 2000 and 2006, Philadelphia’s population decreased by 4.6% and Pennsylvania’s increased by 1.3%. In 2005 the racial makeup of Philadelphia was approximately 47% white and 45% black. 71% of Philadelphians of age 25 or older were high school graduates as compared to 82% statewide. 18% had bachelor or higher degree compared to 21% statewide. The median value of owner occupied units was $59,700 as compared to $97,000 statewide. Median household income in 2004 was $30,892 as compared to $43,714 statewide. And, Philadelphia had 21.6% of its citizen below the poverty level compared to 11.2% statewide. Per capita income in 1999 was $16,509 as compared to $20,880 statewide. In 2002 per capita retail sales was $6,117 as compared to $10,603 statewide. In 2004 Philadelphia had 1,408 violent crimes, of which 22% were manslaughter. The Department of Justice indicated that in 2003, Philadelphia police department had 6,853 full time sworn personnel.

In Harford County, Maryland, between 2000 and 2006, the population increased by 10.4% as compared to 6% statewide. In 2005 the racial composition was approximately 85% white and 11.5% black. 87% of Harford County citizens of age 25 or older were high school graduates as compared to 84% statewide. 27% had bachelor or higher degree compared to 31% statewide. The median value of owner occupied units was $149,800 as compared to $146,000 statewide. Median household income in 2004 was $64,025 as compared to $57,019 statewide. And, Harford County had 6.6% of its citizen below the poverty level compared to 9.2% statewide. Per capita income in 1999 was $24,232 as compared to $25,614 statewide. In 2002 per capita retail sales was $10,755 as compared to $11,034 statewide.  In 2005 Harford County had 374 violent crimes, of which .5% were manslaughter.

In 2003, Baltimore and Philadelphia had 46 and 52 full time sworn officers per 10,000 residents, respectively, higher than most major U.S. cities. Therefore, the argument that more police is the answer to crime appears hollow.

Crime is the outcome of multiple adverse social, economic, cultural and family conditions. Thus, to mitigate crime, the root causes must be understood and dealt with. In essence, crime must be addressed before it occurs. Therefore, mayoral candidates in Baltimore and Philadelphia should look at the organizational structure of cities and neighborhoods throughout the United Stated that have low crime rates and adapt their strategies.

For instance, Harford County, MD crime rate is significantly lower than Baltimore and Philadelphia. Why? Harford County’s population statistic is quite different from Baltimore and Philadelphia. Harford County has a healthy population growth rate, it has a larger pool of high school and college graduates, and has twice the median household income and higher per capita income. Additionally, per capita retail sales are about twice of that of Baltimore and Philadelphia. As a result, it has a lower poverty level than Baltimore and Philadelphia.

From the above figures, it is clear that Baltimore and Philadelphia residents, when compared to Harford County, have less schooling and less economic opportunities. It is the responsibility of city leaders to provide the appropriate strategies for socio-economic growth of the cities they are elected to manage. The structure of an organization or community is a result of strategies formulated by its leaders.